FATE · World Cup 2026 Prediction Archive

These timestamped prediction rows were later settled against real final results. Their legacy signing key is cryptographically compromised, so the signatures must not be treated as trustworthy cryptographic proof. The original rows remain visible for auditability. ← back to the river ·

Signing key compromised · trust revoked 2026-07-13 02:00 UTC

All 33 signatures below repeat the same 32-byte Ed25519 R value across distinct payloads. Reusing R across different messages can expose the private signing scalar. Although the signatures can still pass an algebraic verification check, that does not restore their evidentiary value: key dc9cfff4ac48… is treated as cryptographically compromised and these rows must not be treated as trustworthy cryptographic proof. Signing with this key is disabled by policy. The original rows are preserved as compromised legacy evidence and will not be silently re-signed. Machine-readable key status.

33 compromised legacy receipts settled hit-rate: 81% (17/21) mean Brier: 0.1348 (0=perfect, 0.25=coin-flip) 6 pending · 2 void signer dc9cfff4ac48… scheme ed25519 · sha256 payloads

Match	Pick	Conf	Result	Timing	Claimed signed (UTC)	Receipt
ARG vs ESP - SF1 2026-07-14	ARG	54.0%	⧗ pending	✓ pre-matchday	2026-06-27 04:14	rcpt_mqvuj0xz_0cece2 sha256 8fc45babcd77… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
BRA vs GER - SF2 2026-07-15	BRA	51.0%	⌀ void GER eliminated — pairing can no longer occur	✓ pre-matchday	2026-06-27 04:14	rcpt_mqvuj0y0_10daa2 sha256 a8e4be54cc4b… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
ARG vs BRA - Final 2026-07-19	ARG	53.0%	⌀ void BRA eliminated — pairing can no longer occur	✓ pre-matchday	2026-06-27 04:14	rcpt_mqvuj0y1_ab044d sha256 486b0ab44282… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
ENG vs PAN - Group L MD3 2026-06-27	England	82.0%	✓ hit PAN 0–2 ENG brier 0.0324	same-day (kickoff time not recorded)	2026-06-27 09:04	rcpt_mqw4w1ba_a81d92 sha256 2cd1b7263dd9… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
CRO vs GHA - Group L MD3 2026-06-27	Croatia	58.0%	✓ hit CRO 2–1 GHA brier 0.1764	same-day (kickoff time not recorded)	2026-06-27 09:04	rcpt_mqw4w31p_3785ea sha256 6fd8dd4acbad… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
PAN vs ENG — Group L MD3 2026-06-27T21:00Z	England	91.0%	✓ hit PAN 0–2 ENG brier 0.0081	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-06-27 09:28	rcpt_mqw5qy0z_cea09f sha256 b62877d730f6… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
CRO vs GHA — Group L MD3 2026-06-27T21:00Z	Croatia	59.0%	✓ hit CRO 2–1 GHA brier 0.1681	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-06-27 09:28	rcpt_mqw5r0os_9211e0 sha256 4777ab8c37b0… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
JOR vs ARG — Group J MD3 2026-06-28T02:00Z	Argentina	87.0%	✓ hit JOR 1–3 ARG brier 0.0169	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-06-27 09:29	rcpt_mqw5rgak_653c5e sha256 dd6eb0e79891… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
ALG vs AUT — Group J MD3 2026-06-28T02:00Z	draw	41.0%	✓ hit ALG 3–3 AUT brier 0.3481	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-06-27 09:29	rcpt_mqw5ricx_61d5ca sha256 d8b13a47646a… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
COL vs POR — Group K MD3 2026-06-27	Colombia	51.0%	✗ miss COL 0–0 POR brier 0.2601	same-day (kickoff time not recorded)	2026-06-27 09:38	rcpt_mqw63xr3_235ecd sha256 8aaf4a1c5734… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
COD vs UZB — Group K MD3 2026-06-27	DR Congo	72.0%	✓ hit COD 3–1 UZB brier 0.0784	same-day (kickoff time not recorded)	2026-06-27 09:38	rcpt_mqw63z92_823fe4 sha256 a5b728f3a683… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
Spain - WC 2026 Champion (tournament winner)	Spain	20.4%	⧗ pending	—	2026-06-27 10:16	rcpt_mqw7g03i_542a08 sha256 44409d93cd98… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
Colombia - WC 2026 Champion (tournament winner)	Colombia	4.2%	⧗ pending	—	2026-06-27 10:16	rcpt_mqw7gd7a_3384f7 sha256 569a00c74309… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
COL vs POR - Group K MD3 2026-06-27	COL	53.0%	✗ miss COL 0–0 POR brier 0.2809	same-day (kickoff time not recorded)	2026-06-27 20:50	rcpt_mqwu39sf_5f25da sha256 22abc2b9862e… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
COD vs UZB - Group K MD3 2026-06-27	COD	71.0%	✓ hit COD 3–1 UZB brier 0.0841	same-day (kickoff time not recorded)	2026-06-27 21:17	rcpt_mqwv2af6_9eb660 sha256 7cea11cbe736… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
WC 2026 Champion (signed at end of group stage, 72 results locked)	Spain	20.7%	⧗ pending	—	2026-06-29 00:16	rcpt_mqygwkkf_072c83 sha256 d36e9a4473a5… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
AUS vs EGY - R32 2026-07-03T18:00Z	AUS	52.7%	✗ miss AUS 1–1 EGY (pens 2–4) brier 0.2777	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-03 13:18	rcpt_mr4ym51q_6d5468 sha256 02ef230cf8df… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
ARG vs CPV - R32 2026-07-03T22:00Z	ARG	95.9%	✓ hit ARG 3–2 CPV brier 0.0017	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-03 13:19	rcpt_mr4ymcq2_a87b18 sha256 0aba58e8405d… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
COL vs GHA - R32 2026-07-04T01:30Z	COL	84.6%	✓ hit COL 1–0 GHA brier 0.0237	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-03 13:19	rcpt_mr4ymkf7_e75beb sha256 ff81b2b4ba27… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
CAN vs MAR - R16 2026-07-04T17:00Z	MAR	69.7%	✓ hit CAN 0–3 MAR brier 0.0918	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-03 13:19	rcpt_mr4ymr2n_bc4c01 sha256 ca4dbecffc0a… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
PAR vs FRA - R16 2026-07-04T21:00Z	FRA	82.1%	✓ hit PAR 0–1 FRA brier 0.0320	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-03 13:19	rcpt_mr4ymy6z_ab77a0 sha256 0411446886bd… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
BRA vs NOR - R16 2026-07-05T20:00Z	BRA	62.6%	✗ miss BRA 1–2 NOR brier 0.3919	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-03 13:19	rcpt_mr4yn4rs_1b0c72 sha256 a943b6627fab… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
MEX vs ENG - R16 2026-07-06T00:00Z	ENG	71.8%	✓ hit MEX 2–3 ENG brier 0.0795	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-03 13:19	rcpt_mr4ync49_97a476 sha256 b934dda76c53… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
POR vs ESP - R16 2026-07-06T19:00Z	ESP	62.8%	✓ hit POR 0–1 ESP brier 0.1384	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-03 13:20	rcpt_mr4ynjlm_803cb2 sha256 58fec00c6966… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
USA vs BEL - R16 2026-07-07T00:00Z	BEL	60.8%	✓ hit USA 1–4 BEL brier 0.1537	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-03 13:20	rcpt_mr4ynt7z_bfb4e0 sha256 a66dc9735474… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
ARG vs EGY - R16 2026-07-07T16:00Z	ARG	86.8%	✓ hit ARG 3–2 EGY brier 0.0174	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-04 09:17	rcpt_mr65g23l_67cce9 sha256 befbe07865f1… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
SUI vs COL - R16 2026-07-07T20:00Z	COL	62.4%	✗ miss SUI 0–0 COL (pens 4–3) brier 0.3894	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-04 09:17	rcpt_mr65g252_15c397 sha256 4d3cfce40b6f… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
FRA vs MAR - QF 2026-07-09T20:00Z	FRA	72.4%	✓ hit FRA 2–0 MAR brier 0.0762	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-05 03:18	rcpt_mr781jq1_33a662 sha256 c6b31919a442… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
NOR vs ENG - QF 2026-07-11T21:00Z	ENG	61.9%	✓ hit NOR 1–2 ENG brier 0.1452	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-06 03:18	rcpt_mr8nhqnw_9a8b7f sha256 4a451f7b5b8e… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
ESP vs BEL - QF 2026-07-10T19:00Z	ESP	78.5%	✓ hit ESP 2–1 BEL brier 0.0462	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-07 03:19	rcpt_mra2yso5_bd60ed sha256 1fd6b226b27b… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
ARG vs SUI - QF 2026-07-12T01:00Z	ARG	75.7%	✓ hit ARG 3–1 SUI brier 0.0590	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-08 04:04	rcpt_mrbjzstd_194d13 sha256 e6726d098d37… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
FRA vs ESP - SF 2026-07-14T19:00Z	ESP	51.2%	⧗ pending	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-11 12:19	rcpt_mrgc03pl_96381a sha256 1d371e323dec… · sig 162f0fc01e22…
ENG vs ARG - SF 2026-07-15T19:00Z	ARG	55.7%	⧗ pending	✓ pre-kickoff	2026-07-12 06:19	rcpt_mrhel8ma_adfa2b sha256 b592002e8e8f… · sig 162f0fc01e22…

What can still be checked

The affected public key remains published at os1221.com/fate-pubkey.txt so the legacy rows remain inspectable; its authoritative status is compromised in the key ledger.
Each row contains a payload hash, signature, claimed signing timestamp, and later settlement. Those fields can be reproduced and compared with the preserved ledger.
A successful signature check only confirms internal consistency with the compromised key. It does not prove an independently anchored pre-kickoff timestamp or trustworthy prior art.
The match results, scoring, duplicate-fixture handling, and Brier calculations remain independently auditable against the stated sources.

Provenance & settlement rules

Results source: the same ESPN World Cup scoreboard the live page's /wc/api/results proxy reads (winner and penalty-shootout extraction identical to that Function). Settled by settle_predictions.py, which writes an append-only settlement ledger (~/.omega/wc2026_settlements.jsonl) and emits an Ed25519 omega receipt per batch — prediction history lines are never rewritten.
A prediction settles only when its match has a real final result. Nothing is guessed; unfinished matches stay ⧗ pending.
Void means the pairing can provably no longer occur (a named participant was eliminated in a completed knockout match, or the named round finished without that pairing). The three June-27 semifinal/final rows were speculative pre-bracket pairings signed before the round of 32 was drawn; they void or settle on evidence like everything else, and are excluded from hit-rate and Brier.
Brier score per settled row: (confidence − outcome)², outcome 1 on hit / 0 on miss. Lower is better; 0.25 is the coin-flip line.
Timing: knockout-stage rows record a claimed signing timestamp earlier than the full kickoff datetime; some early group rows recorded only the match date. Because the key is compromised and these timestamps lack an independent transparency anchor, the timing labels are historical ledger claims, not cryptographic proof.
Re-signed fixtures: four Group L/K matches on 2026-06-27 (ENG vs PAN, CRO vs GHA, COL vs POR, COD vs UZB) were each signed twice, minutes apart, while the signing pipeline was being tightened to record exact kickoff times. Every signed row is still listed below, but the headline hit-rate and mean-Brier pills count each real-world fixture once — preferring the more precise pre-kickoff signing, or the later signing when precision ties — so the stats are not inflated by double-counting.

Generated by tools/wc-proof-packet.mjs from preserved prediction and settlement ledgers. Regeneration must reproduce the same compromised legacy rows; it must never upgrade or silently re-sign them.