FATE World Cup archive settling… sims… locks… phase…

FATE — World Cup 2026 final archive

FATE

World Cup 2026 final archive
The Wrong Football final
Finished instrument: World Cup groups decided the draft.
Deepest Survivor decided the draft.Each group owned four teams. The final slots are sealed by deepest round reached, then teams there, wins, and goals. i
Draft racevisual timeline · movement

Draft race — expected final pick over time canonical · depth → teams → wins → goals

Expected final pick over time. 1.01 is the first pick; the bottom four are the bottom-four danger zone.

Detailed movement deltas refreshing. Last good board stays visible.
Skip probability river
opening sealed archive…
Thicker band = more title chance Glow = your / selected owner Dim = not in focus Dashed = colorblind owner mark
final draft order Deepest Survivor 12 sealed picks · deepest survivor → teams there → wins → goals
Deepest Survivor draft order
Projecting boardrunning simulations...
FATE DispatchLoading the first projection...Known results stay visible while the owner order initializes.
Inspectorowner, risk, roots
Model i seed — predictions proof
Exact tiebreak receiptfrozen-now stack, only when needed

Frozen-now ledger depth → teams → wins → goals

Exact stack from results already locked, plus the remaining gates that can still move the projected board.

Future splittouch a match; compare both futures

Click a match, or choose one here, to split the future into both advancing outcomes and see owner deltas side by side.

Tiebreak detailsfinal · locked · full stack on demand

Deepest Survivor standings

draft order law
Who went furthest won the better pickRows are ordered by the sealed final tiebreak stack.
1
deepest team
2
teams there
3
total wins
4
total goals
not a rule
kickoff timingSchedule tells us when evidence arrives, not how picks score.

Sorted by sealed final pick. The detail toggle shows the full tiebreak stack and archived Legacy What-If.

pick owner · group draft posture canonical stack Legacy What-If accuracy
pick 1.01–1.12 = canonical Furthest Team projection stack = depth → teams at depth → wins → goals Legacy What-If = old additive p10–mean–p90 tier canyon = expected-rank gap bottom-four danger zone locks after the July 19 final
Champion archivefinal path · owner colours

World champion

The right bank now ends at Spain. Replay the River to see how its title probability changed as results became history; tap a team to open its group.

Owners

Calibrationgroup + knockout Brier
Group standings & how FATE works ▾

Final group tables from the sealed results ledger, ordered by the real FIFA 2026 Art.13 tiebreak (head-to-head first). Historical model percentages explain what FATE believed at each replay checkpoint; they no longer drive a future claim.

How FATE works — the model, in full

In one sentence: FATE plays the whole World Cup nine thousand times — from each team's strength rating, honoring real results as they lock into history — and reports how often each outcome happens. Probabilities are frequencies, not opinions.

  1. Strength — one scalar per team. During the tournament, FATE could use Team EV, Nate Silver's PELE ratings, or a blend with World Elo. The frozen archive preserves the canonical final-engine output and does not refresh those external inputs.
  2. Match goals — opponent-aware Poisson, λ = 1.32·exp(±ha + Δs); the home edge ha applied only to a 2026 host (USA/MEX/CAN) at home — a World Cup is otherwise neutral, so fixture order added no phantom edge.
  3. Historical live context — Live match heat is display-only STC from score and clock; no xG or red-card feed is claimed. It directed attention during the tournament and never changed a forecast or the sealed order.
  4. Scoreline — Dixon-Coles τ correction (ρ = −0.11) for realistic draw rates. A played match uses its real score every simulation.
  5. Group tables — FIFA 2026 Art. 13: head-to-head before overall goal difference, then a coin.
  6. Third place — the real best-8-of-12 by (points, GD, GF) fill the 32-team knockout.
  7. Knockout — official bracket gates where known; unresolved ties are simulated through regulation, extra time, and penalties.
  8. Monte-Carlo — n = 9,000 tournaments; P(reach a round) is just how often it happens. River mass halves 48→32→16→8→4→2→1.
  9. Sources — the final authority is the checked-in 72-result group ledger, 31-lock knockout topology, canonical engine hash, and anonymous draft-order receipt. Historical market and rating snapshots are context, not final authority.
  10. Independence (honest) — the historical checks were correlated estimators of one truth, not independent votes. Agreement never multiplied confidence, and none of those checks can modify the sealed archive.
  11. Determinism — a seeded RNG makes every run replayable; 34/34 conformance checks lock the behavior.

It does NOT model: lineups, injuries, suspensions, rotation, xG history, fatigue, travel, weather, referees, in-game momentum, transfers, or motivation/dead rubbers. Disciplined uncertainty — explicitly not prophecy. Full written breakdown →